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skills/research/polymarket/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: polymarket
+description: Query Polymarket prediction market data — search markets, get prices, orderbooks, and price history. Read-only via public REST APIs, no API key needed.
+version: 1.0.0
+author: Hermes Agent + Teknium
+tags: [polymarket, prediction-markets, market-data, trading]
+---
+
+# Polymarket — Prediction Market Data
+
+Query prediction market data from Polymarket using their public REST APIs.
+All endpoints are read-only and require zero authentication.
+
+See `references/api-endpoints.md` for the full endpoint reference with curl examples.
+
+## When to Use
+
+- User asks about prediction markets, betting odds, or event probabilities
+- User wants to know "what are the odds of X happening?"
+- User asks about Polymarket specifically
+- User wants market prices, orderbook data, or price history
+- User asks to monitor or track prediction market movements
+
+## Key Concepts
+
+- **Events** contain one or more **Markets** (1:many relationship)
+- **Markets** are binary outcomes with Yes/No prices between 0.00 and 1.00
+- Prices ARE probabilities: price 0.65 means the market thinks 65% likely
+- `outcomePrices` field: JSON-encoded array like `["0.80", "0.20"]`
+- `clobTokenIds` field: JSON-encoded array of two token IDs [Yes, No] for price/book queries
+- `conditionId` field: hex string used for price history queries
+- Volume is in USDC (US dollars)
+
+## Three Public APIs
+
+1. **Gamma API** at `gamma-api.polymarket.com` — Discovery, search, browsing
+2. **CLOB API** at `clob.polymarket.com` — Real-time prices, orderbooks, history
+3. **Data API** at `data-api.polymarket.com` — Trades, open interest
+
+## Typical Workflow
+
+When a user asks about prediction market odds:
+
+1. **Search** using the Gamma API public-search endpoint with their query
+2. **Parse** the response — extract events and their nested markets
+3. **Present** market question, current prices as percentages, and volume
+4. **Deep dive** if asked — use clobTokenIds for orderbook, conditionId for history
+
+## Presenting Results
+
+Format prices as percentages for readability:
+- outcomePrices `["0.652", "0.348"]` becomes "Yes: 65.2%, No: 34.8%"
+- Always show the market question and probability
+- Include volume when available
+
+Example: `"Will X happen?" — 65.2% Yes ($1.2M volume)`
+
+## Parsing Double-Encoded Fields
+
+The Gamma API returns `outcomePrices`, `outcomes`, and `clobTokenIds` as JSON strings
+inside JSON responses (double-encoded). When processing with Python, parse them with
+`json.loads(market['outcomePrices'])` to get the actual array.
+
+## Rate Limits
+
+Generous — unlikely to hit for normal usage:
+- Gamma: 4,000 requests per 10 seconds (general)
+- CLOB: 9,000 requests per 10 seconds (general)
+- Data: 1,000 requests per 10 seconds (general)
+
+## Limitations
+
+- This skill is read-only — it does not support placing trades
+- Trading requires wallet-based crypto authentication (EIP-712 signatures)
+- Some new markets may have empty price history
+- Geographic restrictions apply to trading but read-only data is globally accessible